Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. (ARI) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+998.8%

$25.38

vs $2.31 price

Levered DCF

-$27.45

After debt service

Piotroski score

7 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

0.65

Distress zone

Rating

A-

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	11.95×	-8.93×	40.48×	6.08×	8.89×	1,175.79×	12.97×	10.96×
P/B	0.72×	0.65×	0.75×	0.64×	0.8×	0.73×	1.02×	0.82×
P/S	1.89×	1.72×	2.13×	2.36×	4.37×	4.82×	5.49×	5×
EV / EBITDA	15.25×	18.37×	15.74×	15.4×	19.31×	32.65×	16.61×	12.81×
Gross margin	80.1%	79.9%	83.6%	85.6%	85.0%	88.4%	91.7%	91.2%
Operating margin	65.4%	59.5%	60.2%	101.3%	98.4%	40.5%	42.6%	88.5%
Net margin	17.8%	-17.1%	7.5%	41.4%	53.1%	5.4%	47.1%	53.2%
Current ratio	0.3×	0.37×	0.34×	0.64×	0.31×	0.73×	0.6×	0.18×
Debt / equity	4.27×	3.41×	3.15×	2.96×	2.62×	2.01×	1.57×	0.98×
Interest coverage	1.01×	0.83×	1×	2.4×	2.55×	0.93×	1.36×	3.19×
Dividend yield	11.4%	16.4%	12.9%	14.1%	11.6%	15.2%	10.8%	12.3%
Payout ratio	121.2%	-165.7%	368.7%	80.2%	95.1%	1367.4%	126.5%	115.7%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	6.8%	-6.4%	2.6%	11.3%	9.7%	0.8%	8.8%	8.8%
Return on invested capital	4.7%	5.0%	5.0%	6.8%	4.9%	2.0%	3.0%	7.2%
Return on assets	1.3%	-1.4%	0.6%	2.8%	2.7%	0.3%	3.3%	4.3%
Free cash flow yield	3.1%	2.5%	12.1%	15.5%	10.8%	9.9%	10.2%	12.9%
Earnings yield	9.4%	-9.9%	3.5%	17.5%	12.1%	1.1%	8.6%	10.6%
Enterprise value	$9.1B	$7.3B	$8.4B	$8.3B	$7.5B	$5.9B	$6.4B	$4.4B
Net debt / EBITDA	13×	15.32×	12.63×	12.58×	14.58×	23.47×	9.59×	6.83×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	36	30	34	37	36	43	27	29