Bridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc. Common Stock (BAER) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-13757.2%

-$51.72

vs $0.38 price

Levered DCF

-$55.89

After debt service

Piotroski score

1 / 9

Weak

Altman Z-score

-1.4

Distress zone

Rating

D+

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020
P/E	-4.36×	-2.63×	-4.04×	-1.34×	-19.14×	-34.61×
P/B	1.54×	2.01×	11.62×	5.88×	6.91×	-6.74×
P/S	0.81×	1.09×	4.69×	9.56×	10.85×	31.62×
EV / EBITDA	7.33×	11.31×	-11.64×	-47.79×	50.32×	-76.73×
Gross margin	42.1%	41.7%	38.0%	27.0%	32.5%	4.2%
Operating margin	12.5%	5.4%	-86.2%	-48.8%	4.0%	-66.0%
Net margin	3.4%	-15.8%	-116.0%	-90.8%	-16.6%	-91.2%
Current ratio	2.43×	2.73×	1.78×	4.4×	0.3×	2.37×
Debt / equity	3.79×	3.97×	7.97×	2.77×	0.98×	-3.04×
Interest coverage	0.66×	0.22×	-2.48×	-1.13×	0.17×	-5.53×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020
Return on equity	6.4%	-29.1%	-287.2%	-55.9%	-10.6%	19.5%
Return on invested capital	4.9%	1.9%	-22.7%	-8.0%	1.3%	-6.8%
Return on assets	1.3%	-5.4%	-28.3%	-13.8%	-3.4%	-9.3%
Free cash flow yield	-64.6%	4.9%	-15.3%	-8.0%	-3.9%	-14.4%
Earnings yield	4.2%	-14.5%	-24.7%	-9.5%	-1.5%	-2.9%
Enterprise value	$312.8M	$280.8M	$504.5M	$621.9M	$474.4M	$610.3M
Net debt / EBITDA	5×	6.97×	-4.42×	-13.72×	5.01×	-23.41×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-8	-6	-13	-34	-55	63