Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+52.5%

$150.88

vs $98.91 price

Levered DCF

$102.38

After debt service

Piotroski score

7 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

1.59

Distress zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	21.23×	23.31×	24.31×	18.23×	37.29×	-94.56×	40.12×	9.52×
P/B	7.98×	9.12×	11.35×	14.53×	30.31×	21.01×	10.82×	7.1×
P/S	2.76×	3.61×	4.12×	4.43×	5.82×	7.32×	4.14×	3.33×
EV / EBITDA	12.13×	13.7×	14.77×	14.27×	20.45×	49.86×	18.68×	12.16×
Gross margin	33.6%	34.3%	32.3%	31.3%	27.9%	18.4%	25.8%	28.7%
Operating margin	25.2%	25.9%	22.9%	17.8%	17.8%	5.7%	16.2%	18.7%
Net margin	13.0%	15.6%	17.0%	24.3%	15.6%	-7.8%	10.3%	35.0%
Current ratio	0.6×	0.57×	0.53×	0.55×	1.27×	0.55×	0.73×	0.94×
Debt / equity	5.15×	4.54×	5.42×	8.35×	6.41×	4.42×	2.9×	1.87×
Interest coverage	2.47×	2.45×	2.1×	2.18×	3.36×	0.75×	3.04×	4.71×
Dividend yield	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.7%
Payout ratio	8.1%	6.8%	6.5%	5.9%	10.0%	-28.6%	16.1%	6.7%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	37.6%	39.4%	46.7%	79.7%	81.2%	-22.3%	27.1%	74.5%
Return on invested capital	7.8%	8.0%	6.7%	4.1%	7.9%	2.7%	6.8%	10.0%
Return on assets	5.1%	5.9%	6.0%	7.1%	8.4%	-3.0%	5.4%	20.4%
Free cash flow yield	3.8%	2.3%	-0.7%	1.0%	2.6%	-1.2%	2.3%	1.4%
Earnings yield	4.7%	4.3%	4.1%	5.5%	2.7%	-1.1%	2.5%	10.5%
Enterprise value	$13B	$14.6B	$14.8B	$12.5B	$11B	$9.3B	$6.9B	$4.1B
Net debt / EBITDA	4.59×	4.44×	4.67×	5.11×	3.12×	8.36×	3.74×	2.22×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-21	-19	-13	-23	-1	-0	-7	-7