ERG S.p.A. (ERG.MI) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-18.6%

€17.71

vs €21.74 price

Levered DCF

€6.84

After debt service

Piotroski score

8 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

0.92

Distress zone

Rating

C+

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	48.84×	15.35×	24.05×	11.45×	24.52×	32.5×	91.52×	18.49×
P/B	1.61×	1.34×	2.02×	2.12×	2.72×	1.98×	1.61×	1.34×
P/S	4.3×	3.92×	5.82×	6.07×	7.06×	4.07×	2.8×	2.39×
EV / EBITDA	11.37×	11×	12.37×	12.78×	17.8×	11.28×	9.34×	8.2×
Gross margin	53.2%	53.9%	60.6%	57.2%	56.8%	30.4%	31.1%	31.2%
Operating margin	27.2%	28.6%	37.1%	35.2%	30.4%	15.7%	16.4%	18.4%
Net margin	8.7%	25.5%	24.1%	53.1%	28.7%	12.6%	3.1%	13.0%
Current ratio	1.69×	1.17×	2.45×	1.75×	1.43×	3.02×	2.99×	2.31×
Debt / equity	1.33×	1.44×	1.1×	1.12×	2.27×	1.26×	1.25×	1.16×
Interest coverage	2.18×	2.74×	4.67×	5.82×	3.5×	1.56×	1.68×	3.38×
Dividend yield	4.5%	5.3%	3.5%	3.1%	2.7%	3.3%	3.9%	7.0%
Payout ratio	223.8%	81.2%	83.7%	35.5%	65.7%	106.8%	356.1%	129.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	3.3%	8.7%	8.4%	18.5%	11.1%	6.1%	1.8%	7.3%
Return on invested capital	2.7%	3.0%	4.2%	2.3%	2.4%	2.7%	2.4%	3.0%
Return on assets	1.1%	3.0%	3.4%	7.1%	2.9%	2.4%	0.7%	2.8%
Free cash flow yield	6.5%	8.7%	13.4%	1.9%	-5.7%	8.6%	11.8%	9.5%
Earnings yield	2.0%	6.5%	4.1%	8.8%	4.1%	3.1%	1.1%	5.4%
Enterprise value	€5.4B	€5.4B	€6.2B	€6.2B	€6.9B	€5.1B	€4.4B	€3.8B
Net debt / EBITDA	4.64×	5.1×	3.75×	3.88×	6.88×	3.5×	3.29×	2.9×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	57	-41	-50	190	309	61	35	104