Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-233.3%

-$17.64

vs $13.23 price

Levered DCF

-$6.74

After debt service

Piotroski score

4 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.58

Distress zone

Rating

C-

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	-4.42×	38.68×	33.7×	43.57×	43.51×	33.84×	162.25×	135.76×
P/B	1.01×	1.28×	2.18×	2.55×	2.68×	3.91×	3.44×	7.05×
P/S	0.21×	0.35×	0.67×	0.79×	0.88×	1.15×	1×	0.92×
EV / EBITDA	-31.68×	16.15×	18.24×	23.6×	24.36×	29.21×	33×	22.79×
Gross margin	30.3%	30.2%	31.3%	30.5%	30.8%	31.1%	30.8%	30.4%
Operating margin	-4.7%	1.8%	3.2%	2.7%	2.9%	3.4%	2.7%	3.6%
Net margin	-4.8%	0.9%	2.0%	1.8%	2.0%	3.4%	0.6%	0.7%
Current ratio	1.37×	1.44×	1.35×	1.67×	1.86×	1.64×	1.3×	1.59×
Debt / equity	1.84×	1.38×	1.14×	1.27×	1.45×	1.5×	1.68×	2.86×
Interest coverage	-6.84×	2.71×	5.24×	4.45×	5.28×	4.92×	1.43×	1.45×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	7.3%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.3%	0.4%	23.6%	967.9%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	-22.9%	3.3%	6.5%	5.9%	6.2%	11.6%	2.1%	5.3%
Return on invested capital	-7.1%	1.9%	3.6%	3.2%	2.9%	4.7%	3.1%	4.9%
Return on assets	-7.3%	1.2%	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1.2%
Free cash flow yield	2.4%	-4.9%	4.2%	1.9%	1.6%	1.4%	1.3%	1.8%
Earnings yield	-22.6%	2.6%	3.0%	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%	0.6%	0.8%
Enterprise value	$2.7B	$3.1B	$3.9B	$4.1B	$4B	$4.9B	$3.8B	$3B
Net debt / EBITDA	-20.14×	8.25×	5.92×	7.48×	8×	7.63×	10.67×	6.46×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	24	28	21	30	28	23	22	24