Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-34.1%

$54.24

vs $82.28 price

Levered DCF

$62.83

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

6.59

Safe zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	81.64×	11.32×	6.62×	2.79×	8.74×	-30.46×	3.6×	1.83×
P/B	2.16×	1.36×	1.69×	1.24×	1.51×	1.5×	1.42×	1.79×
P/S	3.54×	1.86×	1.89×	1.03×	1.25×	1.39×	0.86×	0.92×
EV / EBITDA	18.22×	5.63×	3.74×	1.39×	3.49×	13.73×	2.57×	2.51×
Gross margin	8.5%	20.9%	35.9%	50.9%	31.6%	0.7%	33.1%	47.3%
Operating margin	3.5%	16.7%	32.3%	46.1%	23.0%	-3.5%	30.2%	36.9%
Net margin	4.4%	16.4%	28.5%	36.9%	14.2%	-4.6%	23.8%	50.6%
Current ratio	3.19×	5.2×	7.24×	7.66×	5.14×	2.74×	3.44×	3.77×
Debt / equity	0.13×	0.08×	0.09×	0.23×	0.45×	0.58×	0.49×	0.66×
Interest coverage	4.68×	59.68×	30.15×	25.5×	6.68×	-0.84×	13.07×	13.62×
Dividend yield	0.4%	1.5%	1.9%	4.5%	0.8%	1.0%	22.2%	28.3%
Payout ratio	31.3%	17.5%	12.8%	12.4%	6.9%	-29.1%	79.7%	51.8%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	2.7%	12.0%	25.5%	44.3%	17.3%	-4.9%	39.4%	97.8%
Return on invested capital	1.8%	9.3%	21.2%	34.6%	13.5%	-1.4%	25.7%	40.0%
Return on assets	2.0%	9.7%	20.3%	31.6%	10.3%	-2.6%	22.4%	49.9%
Free cash flow yield	-2.0%	-3.2%	6.6%	35.4%	22.2%	2.3%	39.2%	36.2%
Earnings yield	1.2%	8.8%	15.1%	35.9%	11.4%	-3.3%	27.8%	54.7%
Enterprise value	$4.6B	$2.5B	$2.6B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.3B	$1.5B
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.11×	-0.71×	-0.81×	-0.53×	-0.01×	2.18×	0.37×	0.43×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	103	85	74	82	58	69	55	49