Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+42.6%

$47.06

vs $32.99 price

Levered DCF

$51.46

After debt service

Piotroski score

5 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.3

Distress zone

Rating

C+

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	7.27×	8.71×	7.43×	8.3×	8.91×	4,317.65×	13.77×	10.63×
P/B	0.78×	1.25×	1.61×	2.12×	2.27×	3.26×	3.24×	3.19×
P/S	0.55×	0.76×	0.9×	1.07×	1.09×	1.39×	1.09×	0.99×
EV / EBITDA	3.64×	13.26×	10.33×	10.48×	10.69×	56.68×	15.24×	12.26×
Gross margin	30.2%	34.9%	37.4%	37.1%	35.6%	33.8%	35.8%	38.0%
Operating margin	8.6%	8.0%	13.3%	15.8%	15.4%	0.2%	10.4%	12.5%
Net margin	7.6%	8.8%	12.1%	12.9%	12.2%	0.0%	7.9%	9.3%
Current ratio	2.1×	1.4×	1.53×	1.34×	1.36×	1.47×	1.31×	1.25×
Debt / equity	0.97×	2.22×	2.21×	2.4×	2.72×	5.24×	4.16×	4.28×
Interest coverage	11.56×	13.55×	25.31×	29.11×	26.59×	0.31×	17.88×	23.1×
Dividend yield	3.5%	2.3%	1.8%	1.5%	1.6%	1.2%	4.1%	4.3%
Payout ratio	25.5%	20.0%	13.6%	12.6%	14.2%	5245.5%	56.0%	46.3%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	10.8%	14.4%	21.7%	25.5%	25.5%	0.1%	23.5%	30.0%
Return on invested capital	4.1%	3.3%	5.7%	6.9%	6.5%	-0.0%	4.4%	5.6%
Return on assets	4.2%	3.8%	5.8%	6.5%	5.9%	0.0%	4.0%	5.0%
Free cash flow yield	16.9%	21.9%	10.4%	6.4%	14.8%	18.6%	11.8%	17.6%
Earnings yield	13.8%	11.5%	13.5%	12.0%	11.2%	0.0%	7.3%	9.4%
Enterprise value	$2.4B	$9.4B	$10.9B	$11.7B	$10.9B	$11.4B	$12.5B	$12B
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.06×	7.67×	5.36×	4.96×	4.99×	28.73×	8.13×	6.51×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	58	208	207	187	149	180	205	189