Headwater Exploration Inc. (HWX.TO) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-59.6%

CA$5.32

vs CA$13.17 price

Levered DCF

CA$10.40

After debt service

Piotroski score

7 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

8.4

Safe zone

Rating

A-

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	14.64×	8.26×	9.47×	8.34×	22.39×	49.69×	22.64×	-228.57×
P/B	2.98×	2.23×	2.41×	2.48×	2.59×	1.24×	0.56×	0.64×
P/S	4.33×	2.52×	3.46×	2.94×	5.39×	35.07×	6.83×	4.19×
EV / EBITDA	6.48×	3.85×	4.08×	4.02×	9.61×	46.81×	0.35×	5.38×
Gross margin	47.7%	53.6%	45.4%	58.0%	56.6%	0.5%	16.2%	52.1%
Operating margin	40.2%	38.9%	42.2%	45.2%	36.6%	5.4%	-19.6%	32.5%
Net margin	29.8%	30.3%	36.7%	35.4%	24.0%	70.6%	30.2%	-1.9%
Current ratio	1.23×	1.61×	1.64×	1.98×	2.55×	5.82×	37.1×	23.87×
Debt / equity	0.02×	0.02×	0×	0×	0×	0×	0×	0×
Interest coverage	191.03×	98.97×	104.3×	232.89×	186.01×	47×	-121.87×	0×
Dividend yield	4.6%	6.1%	6.4%	1.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	66.8%	50.5%	60.3%	14.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	20.5%	26.9%	25.6%	29.8%	11.5%	2.5%	2.5%	-0.3%
Return on invested capital	18.1%	22.3%	19.3%	25.4%	14.6%	-2.1%	-1.1%	0.7%
Return on assets	15.4%	19.7%	18.7%	22.1%	9.4%	2.2%	2.2%	-0.3%
Free cash flow yield	5.0%	6.0%	4.3%	2.6%	-2.8%	-10.5%	12.8%	13.6%
Earnings yield	6.9%	12.0%	10.6%	12.0%	4.5%	2.0%	4.4%	-0.4%
Enterprise value	CA$2.1B	CA$1.4B	CA$1.3B	CA$1.2B	CA$915.8M	CA$256.8M	CA$3M	CA$17.3M
Net debt / EBITDA	-0.27×	-0.34×	-0.45×	-0.6×	-1.19×	-13.92×	-7.08×	-16.69×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-50	-52	-70	-98	-170	77	109	-1