Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+13.4%

$584.91

vs $515.90 price

Levered DCF

$608.62

After debt service

Piotroski score

8 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

7.69

Safe zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	16.55×	20.5×	13.76×	9.76×	13.16×	9.88×	23.88×	11.72×
P/B	12.49×	12.26×	9.25×	10.26×	6.47×	4.86×	4.6×	3.1×
P/S	0.4×	0.51×	0.36×	0.28×	0.3×	0.34×	0.26×	0.17×
EV / EBITDA	11.01×	12.67×	9.22×	7.37×	8.8×	6.63×	11.13×	6.88×
Gross margin	5.0%	11.4%	10.7%	10.2%	10.7%	12.8%	8.0%	7.6%
Operating margin	3.8%	3.7%	3.8%	4.1%	3.5%	5.0%	1.9%	2.3%
Net margin	2.4%	2.5%	2.6%	2.9%	2.3%	3.4%	1.1%	1.5%
Current ratio	0.8×	0.79×	0.95×	0.85×	1.14×	1.18×	1.41×	1.19×
Debt / equity	5.22×	2.82×	2.74×	3.55×	2.78×	1.46×	1.45×	1.07×
Interest coverage	6.67×	7.65×	8.39×	11.23×	7.33×	10.92×	4.89×	6.15×
Dividend yield	0.5%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	8.8%	7.3%	6.0%	4.4%	6.9%	1.8%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	75.5%	59.8%	67.2%	105.0%	49.2%	49.2%	19.3%	26.5%
Return on invested capital	15.0%	15.8%	17.9%	22.3%	13.5%	19.2%	9.2%	13.3%
Return on assets	10.0%	11.1%	12.8%	16.3%	9.8%	14.4%	5.8%	9.0%
Free cash flow yield	4.8%	3.8%	5.9%	10.5%	8.9%	8.7%	2.9%	7.8%
Earnings yield	6.0%	4.9%	7.3%	10.2%	7.6%	10.1%	4.2%	8.5%
Enterprise value	$11B	$12.6B	$9.8B	$8.8B	$7.2B	$4.8B	$4.6B	$3.2B
Net debt / EBITDA	3.22×	2.33×	2.02×	1.85×	2.42×	1.36×	2.15×	1.47×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-4	2	3	0	2	6	3	2