Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-964.1%

-$226.31

vs $26.19 price

Levered DCF

-$163.66

After debt service

Piotroski score

3 / 9

Weak

Altman Z-score

0.61

Distress zone

Rating

C-

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	53.68×	7.13×	3.67×	3.33×	-158.31×	-0.41×	-11.7×	3.72×
P/B	0.99×	1.6×	1.66×	3.25×	6.03×	-1.68×	1.62×	1.24×
P/S	1×	1.71×	1.78×	1.22×	1.33×	1.16×	1.51×	1.08×
EV / EBITDA	4.27×	3.84×	3.22×	3.56×	10.13×	-1.92×	9.36×	3.89×
Gross margin	32.2%	38.6%	47.9%	66.3%	60.1%	4.9%	35.7%	53.1%
Operating margin	29.3%	38.7%	58.8%	43.0%	8.0%	-259.6%	9.2%	87.6%
Net margin	1.9%	24.0%	48.4%	38.9%	0.7%	-279.6%	-12.7%	29.1%
Current ratio	1.09×	0.92×	1.32×	0.93×	0.66×	0.69×	0.65×	0.99×
Debt / equity	1.13×	1.02×	0.9×	2.05×	3.73×	-4.23×	2×	1.93×
Interest coverage	3.56×	5.31×	8.27×	10.62×	1.32×	-14.38×	0.69×	4.98×
Dividend yield	8.3%	4.4%	3.7%	3.0%	2.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	447.4%	31.1%	13.4%	9.5%	536.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	1.8%	22.4%	45.1%	103.8%	3.0%	405.7%	-13.7%	33.4%
Return on invested capital	7.8%	12.7%	25.2%	33.6%	6.3%	-111.5%	3.3%	33.5%
Return on assets	0.7%	9.3%	20.6%	26.9%	0.4%	-103.9%	-4.0%	9.6%
Free cash flow yield	12.1%	-7.2%	-20.0%	-17.8%	-15.2%	12.8%	-25.3%	-43.1%
Earnings yield	1.8%	14.0%	27.2%	31.9%	0.5%	-242.0%	-8.4%	26.9%
Enterprise value	$4.5B	$6.1B	$5.2B	$3.9B	$2.1B	$1.3B	$2B	$1.4B
Net debt / EBITDA	2.27×	1.49×	1.13×	1.37×	3.85×	-1.38×	5.14×	2.36×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	8	16	1	-20	11	38	0	167