The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+55.8%

$363.06

vs $232.97 price

Levered DCF

$1,300.85

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.73

Distress zone

Rating

A-

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	11.81×	16.58×	24.1×	109×	18.04×	10.18×	10.72×	13.44×
P/B	4.4×	5.48×	4.59×	4.77×	3.29×	3.39×	3.09×	3.25×
P/S	1.52×	1.86×	1.5×	1.53×	1.26×	1.36×	1.08×	1.1×
EV / EBITDA	9.47×	13.04×	18.32×	55.7×	13.58×	8.18×	8.3×	10.99×
Gross margin	29.5%	27.7%	18.9%	15.2%	21.7%	33.4%	26.9%	24.0%
Operating margin	16.2%	14.2%	7.9%	1.9%	8.8%	16.8%	13.2%	9.9%
Net margin	12.9%	11.3%	6.3%	1.5%	7.0%	13.4%	10.2%	8.2%
Current ratio	0.59×	0.37×	1.46×	11.98×	9.86×	11.03×	9.12×	6.63×
Debt / equity	0.23×	0.27×	0.34×	0.4×	0.27×	0.32×	0.36×	0.41×
Interest coverage	51.16×	38.4×	18.3×	3.78×	19.26×	33.06×	27.2×	19×
Dividend yield	2.2%	0.5%	0.3%	0.3%	6.3%	2.7%	4.0%	1.9%
Payout ratio	25.4%	8.0%	7.1%	36.1%	112.6%	27.7%	42.1%	25.6%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	37.3%	33.1%	19.2%	4.5%	18.4%	33.5%	29.0%	24.2%
Return on invested capital	20.7%	19.8%	11.4%	1.0%	5.2%	9.6%	7.9%	6.3%
Return on assets	9.2%	8.0%	4.4%	1.0%	4.7%	8.9%	7.2%	5.6%
Free cash flow yield	12.9%	10.6%	11.2%	8.6%	12.5%	11.6%	14.0%	17.1%
Earnings yield	8.5%	6.0%	4.2%	1.0%	5.6%	9.9%	9.4%	7.4%
Enterprise value	$140.3B	$147B	$100B	$82B	$64.7B	$63.2B	$46.9B	$39.5B
Net debt / EBITDA	0.46×	0.6×	1.25×	4.2×	0.99×	0.69×	0.83×	1.21×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	84	93	100	72	51	41	43	-2