UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM.HE) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+41.0%

€31.22

vs €22.15 price

Levered DCF

€61.62

After debt service

Piotroski score

5 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

2.2

Grey zone

Rating

A-

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	27.24×	32.39×	47.04×	12.21×	13.88×	29.02×	15.53×	7.88×
P/B	1.31×	1.27×	1.64×	1.49×	1.65×	1.74×	1.64×	1.2×
P/S	1.36×	1.37×	1.75×	1.59×	1.82×	1.89×	1.61×	1.12×
EV / EBITDA	11.66×	9.9×	19.49×	8.55×	9.24×	13.18×	8.78×	4.98×
Gross margin	35.7%	15.6%	11.2%	36.6%	34.5%	32.8%	25.9%	49.7%
Operating margin	7.8%	5.8%	5.8%	16.8%	15.9%	8.9%	13.1%	18.1%
Net margin	5.0%	4.2%	3.7%	13.0%	13.1%	6.5%	10.4%	14.3%
Current ratio	1.87×	2.1×	1.82×	2.09×	2.13×	2.71×	2.52×	2.24×
Debt / equity	0.38×	0.34×	0.3×	0.39×	0.24×	0.22×	0.13×	0.08×
Interest coverage	7.21×	5.44×	6.99×	31.33×	33.23×	14.63×	24×	22.56×
Dividend yield	6.0%	5.7%	4.4%	3.7%	3.9%	4.3%	4.2%	5.2%
Payout ratio	165.0%	183.7%	205.9%	45.4%	53.9%	123.8%	65.3%	41.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	4.8%	3.9%	3.5%	12.2%	11.9%	6.0%	10.5%	15.3%
Return on invested capital	3.5%	3.3%	3.2%	8.2%	8.6%	4.4%	8.5%	12.8%
Return on assets	2.7%	2.3%	2.1%	6.9%	7.3%	3.8%	7.2%	10.7%
Free cash flow yield	7.5%	5.3%	6.5%	-5.2%	-1.5%	0.8%	8.8%	9.2%
Earnings yield	3.7%	3.1%	2.1%	8.2%	7.2%	3.4%	6.4%	12.7%
Enterprise value	€16.2B	€17.1B	€21.1B	€21.4B	€19B	€16.6B	€16.2B	€11.7B
Net debt / EBITDA	2.22×	1.69×	2.54×	1.12×	0.56×	0.25×	-0.13×	-0.05×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	60	87	69	20	-7	9	11	72