United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+43.4%

$157.09

vs $109.59 price

Levered DCF

$105.62

After debt service

Piotroski score

5 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

2.82

Grey zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	15.12×	18.65×	20.13×	13.11×	14.53×	108.65×	22.77×	17.64×
P/B	5.19×	6.45×	7.8×	7.65×	13.14×	222.23×	30.96×	27.96×
P/S	0.95×	1.19×	1.49×	1.51×	1.93×	1.73×	1.37×	1.17×
EV / EBITDA	8.96×	10.69×	12.48×	9.05×	10.01×	32.12×	14.36×	11.7×
Gross margin	18.1%	18.8%	19.5%	20.1%	17.9%	25.8%	21.8%	19.7%
Operating margin	8.9%	9.6%	10.3%	13.0%	13.5%	9.3%	10.7%	9.8%
Net margin	6.3%	6.4%	7.4%	11.5%	13.3%	1.6%	6.0%	6.7%
Current ratio	1.22×	1.17×	1.1×	1.22×	1.42×	1.19×	1.11×	1.15×
Debt / equity	1.76×	1.53×	1.54×	1.19×	1.79×	42.24×	8.62×	7.53×
Interest coverage	7.78×	10.09×	12.09×	18.69×	19.19×	11.46×	12.52×	12.37×
Dividend yield	6.4%	5.0%	4.0%	3.4%	1.8%	2.3%	3.2%	3.6%
Payout ratio	96.9%	93.4%	80.1%	44.3%	26.7%	251.2%	71.9%	62.8%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	34.3%	34.6%	38.8%	58.4%	90.4%	204.4%	135.9%	158.6%
Return on invested capital	10.4%	12.0%	12.8%	18.1%	18.7%	11.7%	13.3%	14.5%
Return on assets	7.6%	8.3%	9.5%	16.2%	18.6%	2.2%	7.7%	9.6%
Free cash flow yield	5.7%	5.8%	3.8%	6.2%	5.8%	3.5%	2.2%	7.6%
Earnings yield	6.6%	5.4%	5.0%	7.6%	6.9%	0.9%	4.4%	5.7%
Enterprise value	$106.9B	$127.4B	$158.6B	$169.3B	$202.6B	$167.8B	$124.1B	$103B
Net debt / EBITDA	1.9×	1.64×	1.85×	0.96×	0.75×	4.18×	2.65×	2.1×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	17	17	18	16	16	12	15	20