Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-247.4%

-$31.42

vs $21.31 price

Levered DCF

-$37.99

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.03

Distress zone

Rating

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	78.09×	-42.76×	-14.24×	-10.09×	87.46×	150.93×	-906.77×	-33.87×
P/B	5.26×	8.7×	5.39×	1.63×	14.64×	2.96×	-6.75×	4.56×
P/S	3.9×	8.14×	6.25×	1.28×	13.9×	3.86×	2.24×	4.36×
EV / EBITDA	68.12×	-57.18×	-19.28×	-18.3×	82.24×	86.41×	-121.76×	44.86×
Gross margin	95.2%	92.9%	92.8%	98.2%	99.6%	96.5%	86.0%	100.0%
Operating margin	5.1%	-19.0%	-43.8%	-12.8%	15.7%	2.6%	-2.6%	-8.3%
Net margin	5.0%	-19.0%	-43.8%	-12.7%	15.9%	2.6%	-0.2%	-12.9%
Current ratio	2.99×	2.36×	0.98×	1.25×	7.77×	3.74×	0.88×	8.82×
Debt / equity	2.32×	2.29×	1.74×	1.62×	0.99×	0.27×	-2.16×	5.49×
Interest coverage	1.05×	-2.67×	-6.06×	-7.02×	40.85×	0.74×	-0.19×	-0.3×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	6.7%	-20.3%	-37.8%	-16.2%	16.8%	2.0%	0.7%	-13.5%
Return on invested capital	2.0%	-6.1%	-12.3%	-5.8%	7.7%	1.3%	-1.4%	-1.3%
Return on assets	1.8%	-5.4%	-11.9%	-5.6%	7.4%	1.3%	-0.1%	-1.9%
Free cash flow yield	-4.0%	3.2%	-3.6%	-62.2%	1.3%	1.1%	6.2%	11.8%
Earnings yield	1.3%	-2.3%	-7.0%	-9.9%	1.1%	0.7%	-0.1%	-3.0%
Enterprise value	$5.4B	$6.2B	$4.1B	$1.7B	$11.6B	$710.9M	$508M	$844.5M
Net debt / EBITDA	15.07×	-6.11×	-3.37×	-6.85×	-1.41×	-21.48×	-20.34×	22.74×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-193	-56	-79	-417	-704	-578	-9	19