Vistra Corp. (VST) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+27.5%

$173.78

vs $136.33 price

Levered DCF

$176.39

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.52

Distress zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	72.67×	19.26×	10.61×	-7.12×	-8.46×	15.12×	12.23×	-208.09×
P/B	10.71×	8.53×	2.68×	2×	1.32×	1.15×	1.43×	1.47×
P/S	3.08×	2.76×	0.96×	0.71×	0.91×	0.84×	0.96×	1.26×
EV / EBITDA	14.15×	9.1×	5.56×	21.62×	26.42×	5.64×	6.12×	11.41×
Gross margin	32.9%	43.7%	37.4%	12.3%	11.2%	40.6%	38.4%	30.7%
Operating margin	10.7%	23.7%	18.3%	-8.0%	-12.5%	13.3%	16.9%	5.4%
Net margin	5.3%	15.4%	10.1%	-8.9%	-10.5%	5.6%	7.9%	-0.6%
Current ratio	0.78×	0.96×	1.18×	1.08×	1.35×	1.13×	0.9×	0.95×
Debt / equity	3.99×	3.12×	2.77×	2.72×	1.33×	1.18×	1.42×	1.45×
Interest coverage	1.62×	4.53×	3.62×	-1.29×	-2.53×	5.13×	5.23×	0.93×
Dividend yield	0.9%	1.0%	3.3%	4.6%	2.6%	2.8%	2.1%	0.0%
Payout ratio	52.8%	18.0%	31.0%	-36.9%	-22.8%	41.8%	26.2%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	18.5%	47.7%	28.1%	-25.0%	-15.4%	7.6%	11.7%	-0.7%
Return on invested capital	4.7%	10.7%	7.9%	-3.6%	-4.6%	4.7%	6.6%	1.2%
Return on assets	2.3%	7.0%	4.5%	-3.7%	-4.3%	2.5%	3.5%	-0.2%
Free cash flow yield	0.2%	5.2%	26.5%	-8.3%	-11.3%	21.6%	18.7%	8.4%
Earnings yield	1.7%	5.6%	10.5%	-12.5%	-11.6%	6.6%	8.2%	-0.5%
Enterprise value	$74.3B	$63.7B	$25.4B	$22.7B	$20.7B	$19.1B	$22.4B	$22.3B
Net debt / EBITDA	3.73×	2.31×	2.45×	12.28×	12.38×	2.8×	3.01×	5.5×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	29	22	25	26	28	21	18	13