XPO Logistics, Inc. (XPO) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-84.7%

$29.90

vs $195.90 price

Levered DCF

-$7.27

After debt service

Piotroski score

8 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

3.73

Safe zone

Rating

B-

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	50.52×	39.27×	53.74×	5.75×	15.34×	47.39×	6.98×	6.22×
P/B	8.62×	9.51×	8.03×	3.78×	4.53×	1.4×	0.96×	0.68×
P/S	1.97×	1.88×	1.31×	0.5×	0.72×	0.61×	0.25×	0.14×
EV / EBITDA	17.36×	16.09×	16.12×	8.42×	13.09×	18.07×	9.44×	4.13×
Gross margin	12.0%	11.3%	9.9%	9.5%	7.3%	15.1%	15.6%	14.7%
Operating margin	8.9%	8.2%	5.7%	4.9%	4.3%	1.6%	5.3%	4.1%
Net margin	3.9%	4.8%	2.4%	8.6%	4.7%	1.8%	3.9%	2.4%
Current ratio	1.05×	1.06×	1×	1.08×	1.05×	1.04×	1.03×	1.11×
Debt / equity	2.53×	2.57×	3.25×	3.21×	3.76×	2.72×	2.74×	1.19×
Interest coverage	3.33×	2.96×	2.61×	2.79×	1.48×	0.31×	2.09×	3.24×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.9%	1.9%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	17.0%	24.2%	14.9%	65.8%	29.5%	4.1%	15.3%	11.8%
Return on invested capital	7.7%	8.3%	5.3%	5.5%	4.4%	0.5%	3.9%	5.9%
Return on assets	3.9%	5.0%	2.5%	10.6%	3.9%	0.7%	3.0%	3.4%
Free cash flow yield	2.1%	0.1%	-8.4%	8.1%	8.8%	16.8%	7.2%	22.7%
Earnings yield	2.0%	2.5%	1.9%	17.4%	6.5%	2.9%	15.8%	17.4%
Enterprise value	$20.4B	$19.1B	$13.9B	$6.6B	$9.2B	$9.4B	$9.8B	$6.2B
Net debt / EBITDA	3.73×	3.26×	4.3×	3.55×	5.76×	10.8×	6.89×	2.51×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	23	20	18	18	18	40	39	24