Alcoa Corporation (AA) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-62.1%

$15.24

vs $40.25 price

Levered DCF

$4.30

After debt service

Piotroski score

5 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.87

Grey zone

Rating

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	11.89×	134.93×	-9.32×	-79.77×	25.9×	-25.33×	-3.54×	21.79×
P/B	2.27×	1.56×	1.42×	1.62×	2.37×	1.29×	0.97×	0.88×
P/S	1.08×	0.66×	0.57×	0.64×	0.89×	0.46×	0.38×	0.37×
EV / EBITDA	8.09×	8.93×	45.67×	6.13×	5.41×	5.46×	12.63×	2.27×
Gross margin	16.9%	12.3%	2.3%	15.1%	21.1%	8.2%	11.5%	19.9%
Operating margin	5.9%	9.6%	-0.2%	13.3%	19.0%	5.7%	8.5%	17.9%
Net margin	9.0%	0.5%	-6.1%	-1.0%	3.4%	-1.8%	-10.7%	1.8%
Current ratio	1.44×	1.45×	1.45×	1.75×	1.56×	1.64×	1.38×	1.48×
Debt / equity	0.45×	0.55×	0.46×	0.37×	0.4×	0.79×	0.46×	0.32×
Interest coverage	4.8×	7.47×	-0.22×	16.01×	12.12×	3.64×	7.4×	19.8×
Dividend yield	0.8%	1.1%	1.2%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	9.1%	150.0%	-11.1%	-58.5%	4.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	18.9%	1.2%	-15.3%	-2.4%	9.2%	-5.1%	-27.4%	4.4%
Return on invested capital	6.1%	0.9%	-0.2%	0.8%	9.5%	-0.4%	7.4%	10.0%
Return on assets	7.2%	0.4%	-4.6%	-0.8%	2.9%	-1.1%	-7.7%	1.5%
Free cash flow yield	4.1%	0.5%	-7.3%	4.2%	4.8%	1.0%	7.7%	1.0%
Earnings yield	8.3%	0.7%	-10.8%	-1.5%	3.9%	-4.0%	-28.3%	5.1%
Enterprise value	$14.9B	$9.7B	$7.1B	$8.7B	$11.1B	$5.3B	$5B	$5.6B
Net debt / EBITDA	0.57×	1.55×	6.63×	0.35×	0.03×	1.05×	2.58×	0.28×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	44	44	43	49	36	21	29	32