Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-1556.7%

-$565.43

vs $38.82 price

Levered DCF

$51.77

After debt service

Piotroski score

4 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

0.9

Distress zone

Rating

C+

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	59.18×	20.69×	21.23×	93.35×	13.64×	-4.91×	10.86×	17.14×
P/B	1.41×	1.87×	1.21×	1.43×	1.71×	2.15×	1.93×	2×
P/S	0.41×	0.7×	0.48×	0.56×	1.06×	1.8×	0.95×	0.91×
EV / EBITDA	9.33×	9.08×	6.71×	7.92×	73.95×	-5.27×	7.59×	7.97×
Gross margin	59.7%	24.4%	23.6%	22.1%	13.2%	-22.0%	26.9%	25.3%
Operating margin	2.1%	4.9%	3.8%	0.7%	11.1%	-49.8%	12.1%	7.8%
Net margin	0.7%	3.4%	2.3%	0.6%	7.7%	-37.1%	8.8%	5.3%
Current ratio	0.5×	0.61×	0.61×	0.68×	0.98×	0.93×	0.64×	0.61×
Debt / equity	1.67×	1.46×	0.93×	0.99×	1.07×	1.69×	0.74×	0.56×
Interest coverage	1.25×	4.01×	3.26×	0.74×	5.85×	-20.4×	16.87×	8.81×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.7%	2.1%	2.1%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	-3.4%	22.5%	36.2%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	2.4%	9.0%	5.7%	1.5%	12.6%	-44.3%	17.8%	11.7%
Return on invested capital	1.4%	2.9%	2.4%	0.5%	4.5%	-11.4%	7.1%	5.7%
Return on assets	0.5%	2.0%	1.5%	0.4%	3.2%	-9.4%	5.5%	4.0%
Free cash flow yield	-5.8%	2.2%	-8.9%	-4.7%	11.3%	-6.9%	12.3%	3.1%
Earnings yield	1.7%	4.8%	4.7%	1.1%	7.3%	-20.6%	9.2%	5.8%
Enterprise value	$12.1B	$13.4B	$8.5B	$8.9B	$10.1B	$10.1B	$11.3B	$9.5B
Net debt / EBITDA	4.84×	3.53×	2.79×	3.07×	26.39×	-1.92×	2×	1.68×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	7	18	9	6	23	45	9	12