Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+265.2%

$16.89

vs $4.63 price

Levered DCF

-$5.63

After debt service

Piotroski score

5 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.32

Distress zone

Rating

C-

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	-205×	-60.2×	-32×	12.66×	-23.15×	57.78×	-150.83×	-83.33×
P/B	-3.59×	-12.67×	22.95×	6.35×	17.01×	130.71×	502.74×	43.09×
P/S	0.45×	0.37×	0.48×	0.62×	1.2×	1.82×	1.8×	1.81×
EV / EBITDA	8.98×	8.11×	11.01×	8.14×	26.08×	14.68×	19×	16.84×
Gross margin	12.4%	12.8%	9.9%	11.2%	15.2%	15.9%	15.3%	15.9%
Operating margin	4.4%	4.1%	1.6%	3.8%	1.2%	6.1%	5.9%	6.8%
Net margin	0.2%	-0.1%	-1.0%	5.1%	-5.2%	3.2%	-1.2%	-2.2%
Current ratio	1.06×	1.13×	0.99×	1.3×	1.19×	1.07×	1.04×	0.59×
Debt / equity	-6.47×	-27.48×	37.34×	7.89×	10.13×	59.31×	231.67×	19.54×
Interest coverage	1.02×	1.19×	0.47×	1.56×	0.37×	1.35×	1.14×	0×
Dividend yield	10.7%	14.7%	11.5%	8.7%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	2381.8%	-8800.0%	-526.0%	105.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	-1.6%	2.1%	-50.0%	52.1%	-73.4%	231.3%	-333.3%	-53.6%
Return on invested capital	6.0%	-1.5%	1.3%	3.6%	1.2%	5.0%	6.2%	7.0%
Return on assets	0.2%	-0.1%	-0.9%	4.0%	-3.9%	2.6%	-1.0%	-1.9%
Free cash flow yield	10.8%	14.6%	10.3%	-13.5%	-4.7%	1.1%	2.9%	1.5%
Earnings yield	0.4%	-0.2%	-2.2%	8.2%	-4.3%	1.8%	-0.7%	-1.2%
Enterprise value	$6.3B	$5.1B	$5.6B	$5.9B	$7.3B	$8.9B	$8.5B	$8.6B
Net debt / EBITDA	5.51×	5.25×	6.5×	4.17×	8.76×	4.29×	5.56×	5.05×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-6	-10	-8	15	-28	-21	-11	3