First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-270.7%

-$22.11

vs $12.95 price

Levered DCF

-$0.24

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

1.02

Distress zone

Rating

Overall 2 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	48.22×	59.77×	46.74×	112.75×	-419×	-25.73×	-28.01×	-81.96×
P/B	1.5×	1.88×	2.13×	1.53×	1.6×	3.97×	3.87×	2.66×
P/S	0.77×	1.1×	1.34×	1.1×	1.34×	3.72×	2.92×	2.85×
EV / EBITDA	18.57×	19.26×	20.55×	24.15×	23.28×	-117.05×	-188.13×	34.73×
Gross margin	13.0%	78.0%	21.3%	19.1%	20.7%	8.7%	20.0%	20.4%
Operating margin	2.8%	3.8%	4.6%	2.3%	3.7%	-13.8%	-8.6%	0.9%
Net margin	1.6%	1.9%	2.8%	0.9%	-0.4%	-14.5%	-10.4%	-3.5%
Current ratio	0.29×	0.4×	0.62×	0.67×	0.7×	0.64×	0.33×	0.8×
Debt / equity	1.61×	1.36×	1.08×	0.97×	0.94×	1.99×	1.75×	0.52×
Interest coverage	2.02×	3.08×	5.12×	3.23×	1.11×	-2.07×	-1.87×	0×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	3.1%	3.2%	4.5%	1.3%	-0.4%	-15.5%	-13.8%	-3.3%
Return on invested capital	2.0%	1.8%	2.4%	0.9%	-12.7%	-3.5%	-3.1%	0.5%
Return on assets	1.1%	1.2%	2.0%	0.6%	-0.2%	-4.9%	-4.6%	-1.9%
Free cash flow yield	-3.3%	-1.1%	0.9%	-0.0%	3.4%	-3.6%	-3.0%	-0.7%
Earnings yield	2.1%	1.7%	2.1%	0.9%	-0.3%	-3.9%	-3.6%	-1.2%
Enterprise value	$1.9B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$1.3B	$1.2B	$1.9B	$1.8B	$1.2B
Net debt / EBITDA	9.51×	7.89×	6.53×	8.79×	7.99×	-37.41×	-57.78×	5.28×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	2	1	2	1	-3	3	2	-2