The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-22.9%

$21.82

vs $28.30 price

Levered DCF

$5.71

After debt service

Piotroski score

7 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

2.42

Grey zone

Rating

B+

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	8.86×	121.65×	14.84×	9.28×	13.14×	9.43×	11.86×	16.28×
P/B	1.5×	2.75×	1.02×	1.14×	0.96×	1.16×	1.98×	2.28×
P/S	0.86×	1.52×	0.55×	0.56×	0.41×	0.45×	0.8×	1.02×
EV / EBITDA	6.18×	15.22×	6.46×	6.27×	7.63×	9.91×	10.57×	11.94×
Gross margin	25.2%	100.0%	27.7%	30.0%	27.8%	24.6%	25.0%	24.7%
Operating margin	9.8%	12.8%	14.6%	16.2%	12.8%	9.8%	12.2%	11.4%
Net margin	9.7%	1.3%	4.4%	7.2%	3.4%	4.8%	6.7%	6.2%
Current ratio	2.01×	1.47×	1.21×	1.27×	2.49×	1.73×	1.37×	0.85×
Debt / equity	1.15×	1.36×	1.46×	1.78×	3.14×	3.34×	2.88×	2.64×
Interest coverage	1.6×	1.63×	1.61×	2.33×	2.23×	1.81×	2.01×	1.76×
Dividend yield	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.3%	20.4%	11.8%	9.7%
Payout ratio	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	39.4%	191.2%	139.6%	158.2%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	16.9%	2.4%	8.3%	14.7%	7.9%	12.4%	16.7%	14.0%
Return on invested capital	5.5%	7.2%	7.9%	8.3%	2.6%	4.7%	6.9%	6.2%
Return on assets	6.6%	0.9%	2.9%	4.6%	1.7%	2.5%	3.9%	3.4%
Free cash flow yield	-5.5%	4.5%	16.1%	15.6%	22.9%	31.4%	11.2%	3.3%
Earnings yield	11.3%	0.9%	8.1%	13.0%	8.3%	10.7%	8.4%	6.1%
Enterprise value	$3.9B	$5.4B	$3.1B	$3.3B	$3.5B	$3.8B	$4.8B	$5.1B
Net debt / EBITDA	2.62×	4.88×	3.72×	3.75×	5.59×	7.16×	6.23×	6.38×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	71	57	45	46	46	39	45	52