GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-67.4%

$14.89

vs $45.73 price

Levered DCF

-$1.97

After debt service

Piotroski score

3 / 9

Weak

Altman Z-score

1.04

Distress zone

Rating

C-

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	89.29×	-30.36×	351.45×	-36.65×	-26.14×	-13.29×	-8.72×	-14.89×
P/B	2.98×	3.5×	2.35×	2.41×	2.99×	2.37×	1.42×	2.26×
P/S	3.29×	3.97×	2.25×	2.15×	3.37×	3.15×	1.18×	3.89×
EV / EBITDA	14.82×	34.55×	11.76×	15.14×	27.26×	77.59×	16.86×	85.15×
Gross margin	20.7%	18.4%	16.9%	11.8%	9.2%	4.5%	8.2%	8.0%
Operating margin	5.2%	3.6%	3.5%	0.6%	-2.0%	0.0%	-0.9%	-10.5%
Net margin	58.0%	-11.8%	0.6%	-4.6%	-11.8%	-26.3%	-13.5%	-26.1%
Current ratio	0.58×	0.54×	0.82×	0.51×	0.98×	0.86×	1.64×	1×
Debt / equity	1.09×	1.51×	1.29×	1.6×	1.67×	1.17×	2.82×	1.97×
Interest coverage	0.76×	0.36×	0.45×	0.09×	-0.32×	0×	-0.08×	-0.53×
Dividend yield	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
Payout ratio	0.8%	-3.9%	55.1%	-6.6%	-2.9%	-1.2%	0.0%	0.0%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	52.5%	-10.4%	0.6%	-5.2%	-10.5%	-19.8%	-16.3%	-15.1%
Return on invested capital	2.0%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%	-0.5%	0.0%	-0.2%	-1.4%
Return on assets	19.9%	-3.4%	0.2%	-1.6%	-3.3%	-7.0%	-3.7%	-4.4%
Free cash flow yield	0.8%	1.4%	-0.4%	2.2%	1.4%	0.6%	-5.3%	-2.7%
Earnings yield	17.6%	-3.0%	0.3%	-2.1%	-3.5%	-8.3%	-11.5%	-6.7%
Enterprise value	$29.6B	$34.8B	$26B	$24.1B	$26.7B	$19.7B	$11.2B	$13.5B
Net debt / EBITDA	3.93×	10.34×	4.13×	6.02×	9.62×	25.56×	10.93×	39.68×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-15	24	19	25	43	31	-3	-8