Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

+1657.2%

$199.80

vs $11.37 price

Levered DCF

$229.15

After debt service

Piotroski score

7 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

0.44

Distress zone

Rating

B-

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	10.26×	7.8×	7.86×	24.12×	8.42×	41.51×	9.97×	51×
P/B	0.77×	0.94×	0.8×	0.79×	0.61×	0.56×	1.1×	0.44×
P/S	3.32×	4.88×	4.14×	8.88×	5.84×	10.17×	4.57×	15.83×
EV / EBITDA	12.37×	16.94×	19.18×	62.16×	22.03×	123.21×	9.81×	17.46×
Gross margin	84.9%	59.9%	59.7%	50.0%	75.0%	48.5%	87.7%	89.0%
Operating margin	71.2%	62.6%	53.3%	37.0%	69.5%	24.6%	108.6%	67.3%
Net margin	32.5%	62.5%	52.7%	36.9%	69.5%	24.6%	45.9%	31.3%
Current ratio	0×	1.02×	2.52×	2.08×	1.32×	0×	0×	0.93×
Debt / equity	1.27×	1.14×	1.26×	1.33×	1.09×	1.19×	1.79×	0×
Interest coverage	1.84×	1.46×	1.25×	0.67×	2.77×	0.48×	0×	0×
Dividend yield	15.2%	10.5%	10.6%	8.3%	6.4%	3.7%	7.8%	1.2%
Payout ratio	155.8%	81.9%	83.2%	200.5%	54.0%	152.9%	77.3%	61.5%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	7.5%	12.0%	10.2%	3.3%	7.3%	1.4%	11.0%	0.9%
Return on invested capital	7.0%	5.6%	4.5%	1.4%	3.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Return on assets	3.2%	5.4%	4.4%	1.4%	3.3%	0.6%	3.9%	1.7%
Free cash flow yield	28.9%	15.0%	12.3%	6.1%	18.0%	8.5%	-2.2%	11.4%
Earnings yield	9.8%	12.8%	12.7%	4.2%	11.9%	2.4%	10.0%	2.0%
Enterprise value	$1.8B	$2B	$1.5B	$1.1B	$600.5M	$264.3M	$187.5M	$70.3M
Net debt / EBITDA	7.7×	9.14×	11.42×	38.16×	13.61×	81.9×	6.02×	-0.56×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	-471	-262	-168	-291	-1,234	125	102	44