Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-32.1%

$174.56

vs $257.15 price

Levered DCF

$180.89

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

4.14

Safe zone

Rating

C-

Overall 1 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	24.04×	25.1×	19.12×	11.55×	15.35×	28.38×	15.2×	10.59×
P/B	4.02×	4.55×	3.63×	3.22×	3.55×	4×	3.42×	2.92×
P/S	2.06×	2.39×	1.86×	1.39×	1.66×	1.95×	1.51×	1.11×
EV / EBITDA	12.68×	13.57×	10.75×	7.55×	8.89×	12.97×	8.76×	6.74×
Gross margin	21.0%	21.3%	21.8%	24.7%	24.2%	20.8%	23.6%	23.5%
Operating margin	14.0%	13.1%	13.8%	16.8%	16.6%	12.6%	15.1%	15.2%
Net margin	8.6%	9.6%	9.8%	12.1%	10.9%	6.9%	10.0%	10.5%
Current ratio	3.17×	3.23×	2.57×	2.86×	3.09×	3.51×	3.42×	3.05×
Debt / equity	0.95×	0.63×	0.79×	0.76×	0.76×	0.84×	0.89×	0.94×
Interest coverage	15.87×	26.6×	20.17×	20.18×	8.42×	9×	8.18×	11.23×
Dividend yield	2.4%	2.2%	3.1%	3.6%	3.0%	2.3%	2.8%	3.4%
Payout ratio	58.5%	55.7%	58.7%	40.8%	45.2%	65.0%	42.9%	36.3%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	16.7%	18.3%	19.1%	28.1%	23.3%	14.2%	22.7%	27.6%
Return on invested capital	9.4%	10.5%	10.3%	14.9%	13.9%	9.1%	12.2%	13.8%
Return on assets	7.0%	9.1%	8.8%	12.9%	10.7%	6.2%	9.6%	11.2%
Free cash flow yield	3.9%	2.6%	5.8%	5.7%	3.8%	4.7%	7.7%	8.0%
Earnings yield	4.2%	4.0%	5.3%	8.7%	6.6%	3.6%	6.6%	9.4%
Enterprise value	$22.3B	$22.1B	$17B	$14.3B	$14.9B	$14.7B	$12.6B	$10B
Net debt / EBITDA	2.18×	1.28×	1.59×	1.31×	1.26×	1.55×	1.43×	1.45×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	94	89	85	78	79	74	76	76