Polski Koncern Naftowy ORLEN Spólka Akcyjna (PKN.WA) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-103.1%

-PLN 4.41

vs PLN 143.82 price

Levered DCF

PLN 102.21

After debt service

Piotroski score

6 / 9

Average

Altman Z-score

2.79

Grey zone

Rating

Overall 4 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	44.09×	37.17×	3.63×	1.88×	2.86×	8.96×	8.54×	8.33×
P/B	0.73×	0.36×	0.5×	0.55×	0.61×	0.59×	0.95×	1.29×
P/S	0.42×	0.19×	0.2×	0.27×	0.24×	0.29×	0.33×	0.42×
EV / EBITDA	3.18×	3.17×	1.94×	1.5×	2.63×	5.5×	4.84×	5.89×
Gross margin	17.8%	14.2%	16.3%	18.9%	15.6%	11.1%	12.5%	11.3%
Operating margin	9.1%	2.7%	7.5%	14.8%	8.0%	-0.5%	4.8%	6.6%
Net margin	0.9%	0.5%	5.5%	14.3%	8.5%	3.2%	3.9%	5.1%
Current ratio	1.33×	1.14×	1.35×	1.27×	1.26×	1.07×	1.75×	1.79×
Debt / equity	0.25×	0.19×	0.17×	0.22×	0.4×	0.47×	0.33×	0.28×
Interest coverage	12.15×	5.9×	29.75×	35.86×	17.6×	-0.79×	15.24×	23.2×
Dividend yield	6.2%	8.8%	8.4%	2.0%	4.7%	1.7%	4.1%	2.8%
Payout ratio	275.3%	328.0%	30.9%	3.8%	13.5%	15.5%	34.9%	23.1%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	1.7%	1.0%	13.6%	29.2%	21.5%	6.6%	11.1%	15.6%
Return on invested capital	3.3%	0.7%	9.6%	18.2%	11.0%	-0.6%	8.0%	11.7%
Return on assets	0.9%	0.6%	7.8%	14.6%	10.4%	3.3%	6.0%	8.7%
Free cash flow yield	14.8%	10.4%	7.2%	14.4%	6.5%	-1.3%	13.3%	1.1%
Earnings yield	2.3%	2.7%	27.2%	53.2%	35.0%	11.2%	11.7%	12.0%
Enterprise value	PLN 122.8B	PLN 73.3B	PLN 88.7B	PLN 84.9B	PLN 50B	PLN 43.2B	PLN 44.2B	PLN 52.1B
Net debt / EBITDA	0.29×	0.8×	0.28×	0.18×	0.96×	2.36×	0.82×	0.66×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	10	11	50	96	60	63	58	60