The Timken Company (TKR) Valuation

Valuation

Model-based estimates, not advice. The DCF is the discounted-cash-flow value per share; compare it with the price, not as a target.

DCF fair value

-28.1%

$82.69

vs $114.95 price

Levered DCF

$69.27

After debt service

Piotroski score

8 / 9

Strong

Altman Z-score

3.13

Safe zone

Rating

B-

Overall 3 / 5

Ratios by fiscal year

Margins and yields are shares of revenue, equity or price; multiples are ×.

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
P/E	20.37×	14.22×	14.52×	12.76×	14.26×	20.47×	11.78×	9.5×
P/B	1.84×	1.77×	2.22×	2.29×	2.29×	2.71×	2.28×	1.82×
P/S	1.28×	1.1×	1.2×	1.16×	1.27×	1.66×	1.13×	0.8×
EV / EBITDA	10.27×	8.27×	8.61×	8.33×	9.3×	10.91×	8.59×	7.23×
Gross margin	28.7%	31.6%	32.0%	29.9%	28.0%	29.0%	30.2%	29.0%
Operating margin	12.4%	13.4%	13.8%	13.5%	12.4%	12.9%	13.6%	12.7%
Net margin	6.3%	7.7%	8.3%	9.1%	8.9%	8.1%	9.6%	8.5%
Current ratio	2.82×	3.07×	1.79×	2.47×	2.47×	2.36×	2.54×	2.53×
Debt / equity	0.68×	0.8×	1×	0.93×	0.72×	0.81×	1.02×	1.06×
Interest coverage	5.13×	4.88×	5.94×	8.14×	8.73×	6.73×	7.16×	8.79×
Dividend yield	1.7%	1.9%	1.6%	1.8%	1.8%	1.5%	2.0%	3.0%
Payout ratio	34.1%	27.2%	23.9%	22.5%	25.0%	30.6%	23.4%	28.3%

Key metrics by fiscal year

Metric	FY2025	FY2024	FY2023	FY2022	FY2021	FY2020	FY2019	FY2018
Return on equity	9.1%	12.5%	15.3%	18.0%	16.1%	13.2%	19.4%	19.2%
Return on invested capital	7.4%	8.2%	8.9%	9.5%	9.4%	7.7%	9.7%	8.9%
Return on assets	4.3%	5.5%	6.0%	7.1%	7.1%	5.6%	7.5%	6.8%
Free cash flow yield	6.9%	6.1%	6.2%	5.5%	4.5%	7.8%	9.6%	7.6%
Earnings yield	4.9%	7.0%	6.9%	7.8%	7.0%	4.9%	8.5%	10.5%
Enterprise value	$7.7B	$6.9B	$7.9B	$7B	$6.6B	$7.3B	$6B	$4.4B
Net debt / EBITDA	2.4×	2.26×	2.36×	2.12×	1.94×	2.14×	2.43×	2.53×
Cash conversion cycle (days)	165	166	159	156	140	144	139	148